Android XR Poses a Crucial Challenge for the Future of Meta’s XR Aspirations

Meta recently expressed a strong desire to become “the Android of XR,” but it’s not alone in this ambition. Android XR is also vying for that top position, naturally.

The ultimate victor in the XR arena might not be decided by tech specs alone. The presence of flat apps, like Spotify, TikTok, Snapchat, and Discord, could play a decisive role. While these apps may not scream excitement for headset users, Apple’s Vision Pro has demonstrated their potential value by integrating familiar apps into the XR environment rather than isolating them. Android XR is now taking a similar approach by ensuring compatibility with all Android apps available on the Play Store.

Meta’s headsets shine in gaming, but the true potential of XR extends far beyond that realm.

When you compare a company solely dedicated to gaming, like Nintendo, with a broader computing giant like Microsoft, the difference in scope and reach becomes obvious. Just look at their market values—Microsoft overshadows Nintendo by a staggering margin, 43 times, in fact. Although this isn’t a perfect comparison (considering Microsoft’s extensive range of services), the point is clear.

In the XR world, we see two main platforms emerging:

– Meta’s Horizon OS offers the richest collection of immersive apps.
– Google’s Android XR excels with a vast library of flat apps.

For either to dominate the XR space, they need the strengths of the other. Who, then, faces a steeper hill to climb?

Meta seems to encounter a tougher challenge.

Immersive app creators are always on the lookout for expansion. If they can snag a 25% bigger audience by adapting to Android XR, the choice practically makes itself.

On the flip side, prominent flat apps, such as Spotify, TikTok, Snapchat, and Discord, might not see significant user growth from a transition to Horizon OS. Even achieving modest growth of 0.25% compared to their existing reach on Android is an uphill battle.

You might argue that since Horizon OS is Android-based, porting apps should be straightforward. While this might be true technically, the continuous support needed for large apps with substantial user bases presents a formidable challenge.

Thus, Google seems better positioned to woo crucial immersive apps to Android XR, whereas Meta might struggle to draw key flat apps to Horizon OS. Without a robust lineup of flat apps, Meta’s headsets could end up being seen as gaming consoles rather than versatile computing platforms.

This scenario is far from Meta’s original vision. The company ventured into XR ten years ago with the aim of taking the helm of the next big computing platform—before Apple or Google could step in.

Even if flat apps feel non-essential to the XR experience, a platform boasting both substantial flat and immersive apps will unquestionably outshine one that doesn’t.

Imagine Meta consistently crafting headsets that are 20% faster, lighter, and cheaper than their Android XR counterparts. Even then, the absence of core flat apps would likely overshadow any hardware superiority in the grand scheme.

This poses a fundamental risk to Meta’s XR dreams, one with no apparent solution on the horizon.